Knowledge is power.

With that quote deeply in mind, we are proud to introduce the "NZAB Agri Bank Dashboard".

It's a quarterly snapshot on all bank movements, with source data from RBNZ.  

Why is this important? 

Well, understanding the forces at play in each bank gives us very strong direction on how we help our farmers more easily access capital, who from, plus the likely costs of that funding.

It also saves time for our farmers and puts energy into the right parts of your credit process, rather than chasing shadows in an increasingly complex world.    All of this so you can focus on what you do best- running your own strategy and your business effectively.

We'd love your feedback. 

Anything that you think might be useful, we'd love to hear from you!

We'll add to this dashboard over time - including things like a bank appetite index (diving deeper into each banks metrics for viability and security assessment). 

We'll put this out quarterly from here.

The version below is with data to the 31 March 2021.

The interest cost that you pay as a farmer is one of the biggest costs on farm that you will face. It is right up there with your feed/grazing bill and your wage bill. Suffice to say, it should demand your attention.

We are in a great period, with farmers enjoying some of the lowest rates ever.

However, whilst those rates have dropped substantially over the last few years, the range of rates being offered to different farmers in the market is now incredibly wide versus history.

Farmer A could easily be paying double that of Farmer B.

Within that we are also seeing some significant change in the components that make up your interest rate and can see some interesting movements coming up as bank appetite shifts into the positive territory.  

How you take advantage of that will require a specialised approach.           

Firstly, lets start with what makes up your interest rate.

To illustrate, let’s narrow this discussion to only floating rate lending.

Your floating interest rate is made up of three things - The underlying “base indicator”, the banks’ “liquidity costs” and the banks “customer margin”.

It’s that time of year when we’re finalising budgets for FY 22 and the ultimate question on all dairy farmers lips is: “what payout do we use for budgeting next year?”  

It is a much different landscape entering into FY 22 than it was in FY 21.   This time a year ago we were knee deep in COVID-19 and incredible uncertainty was evident in all parts of the world economy.  A common trend amongst most bank economists were milk price forecasts leading with $5 in front of it. When Fonterra finally delivered their opening forecast of $6.00+, it was met with mild jubilation (albeit noting the very wide range offered).

What a turnaround it has ended up being. At $7.60, being the current mid-point (milk only) with a sense of some upside potential, its going to be the second equal payout of all time.

As you know we are very interested in the “why” when banks show differing levels of appetite in the Agri Sector.  

By understanding the “why” from a bank perspective allows farmers to better understand how they should navigate their credit and negotiation processes with their bank.

Knowing this allows our farmers to more effectively separate their strategy from what is good for their business and what is good for their bank which can, at times, be quite different things.

This short article looks at the impact of differing bank strategies since 2007 when lending took off quite aggressively in the Agri sector with the first “whole milk powder boom” and the very challenging volatility that followed.

These first graphs show how much capital each bank has leant to the Agri Sector (in total), since 2008.

We are in very interesting times right now.  

There are some big forces about to play out in the main trading banks operating in New Zealand. We believe this will culminate into a wave of capital that the Agri sector hasn't seen for the past 5-7 years.

That wave of capital coming to the Agri sector is going to have some interesting effects on asset values, funding costs and decision making.

A debate amongst family...

In the Timaru office we have an ongoing debate about capital gain in various asset classes over the next 5 years. Because there are three headstrong and slightly argumentative Lamings' in this particular office, we each took opposing views.

As you’ll see, it’s led me to want to share some insights about residential property.

If you are a reader of our content, you’ll know capital gain often follows where there are lumpy flows of credit.

The credit flow has been well and truly pumped into the housing market, due to the banks preferring the simplicity and profitability of home lending. This, coupled with ultra-low wholesale borrowing rates, The RBNZ "Funding for Lending" programme (RBNZ lending to retail banks at the OCR) and Large Scale Asset Purchase Program (printing money and buying bonds), has contributed to historically low retail housing rates and investors chasing assets.

The Corelogic NZ House Price Index shows properties in New Zealand lifted 14.50% in the 12 months to January, 7.6% in the last 3 months and a mind boggling 100.1% since the peak of 2007 pre GFC. You can’t ignore these numbers. Whether it be the interest rate story above, or the lack of supply, or perceived immigration, the stats are the stats.